Economic Outlook category

A complete round up of news and views from GAIM International 2010

June 24, 2020

GAIM International is the “must attend” annual hedge fund conference.  The 2010 event continued that tradition, 16 years in the making.  In addition to the coverage of the event by Beverly Chandler,  we’ve gathered the leading articles and commentary from the business news websites to give you a comprehensive review of this years hugely successful event.  B.H. Fraser provided an alternative view of the industry as Poet in Residence.

We have captured a series of video interviews with some of the industry leaders which will be posted on this site over the coming weeks.   To make sure you don’t miss out, either add the RSS feed to your reader or sign up for email alerts.

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Some key quotes from industry players - Reuters

What does Gerlof de Vrij, Head of Global Tactical Asset Allocation at APG think about hedge funds as a liquid asset class and thoughts from other industry leaders as the sector wrestles with challenges from regulation, consolidation and market volatility…. more here

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Flat currencies to lose value against real assets - Reuters

Veteran hedge fund manager Bill Browder is buying commodities and the companies that produce them in emerging markets to profit from what he said is a looming crisis in the world’s major currencies…. more here

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Hedge-Fund Survival Skills to Be Tested by Increased European Regulation - Bloomberg

“The survival instincts that many hedge-fund managers have in markets they’re also going to have to display in facing up to regulatory challenges,” Rick Sopher, managing director of LCF Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management Ltd…. more here

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Macro hedge funds best despite May dip - Reuters

Hedge funds taking directional bets on markets will be among the best performers in 2010 as concerns over the health of major economies continue to dominate markets, said Lombard Odier’s head of hedge funds advisory… more here

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Executives sound warning on hedge funds UCITS boom - Reuters

“It’s very difficult, if everyone seeks daily liquidity, to invest in hedge funds properly,” said Steve Friedman, managing partner of EOS Partners… more here

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The Mirror Crack’d - FT Alphaville

Mike Novogratz, one of the founders of the giant Fortress Group, and Hugh Hendry, the voluble manager behind the definitely smaller but in some ways no less influential Eclectica Asset Management, slugging it out…. more here

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Hedge Fund investors almost double macro bets as global trades proliferate - Bloomberg

Hedge funds that bet on economic trends are attracting cash at almost double last year’s pace as they seek to profit from events such as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and China’s decision to let the yuan trade more freely…. more here

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Seed investors return to start-up hedge funds - Reuters

Sovereign wealth funds and pension funds are backing start-up or small hedge funds again, said FRM Capital Advisers… more here

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Mammon and Montrachet - FT Alphaville

What do eastern mysticism, violence, mammon, and am dram have in common? They are all dinner and drinks topics of conversation amongst hedge fund managers in Monaco…. more here

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Sand, sea and SEC - HFM Week

While managers gathered in a stormy south of France last week, for Monaco’s annual GAIM International event, pondered the labyrinthine twists of EU and US regulatory developments, investors jetted in with a different set of priorities… more here

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The Great Investing Dilemma of 2010 - Market Melange

The notion of negative Chinese GDP growth is widely regarded as a near impossibility –much like the notion that house prices would keep going up for ever – scary thought! …. more here

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Hedge Funds Turn Mutual Funds to Short-Circuit European Rules With NEWCITS - Bloomberg

Guy Hurley said he’s not sweating European plans for new hedge-fund rules after leaving Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co. a year ago to start an onshore fund that uses strategies such as merger arbitrage…. more here

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Byron Wien sees a bottoming in stock prices and the possible return of $10 billion-sized buyouts - Reuters

Wien, who is well known for his annual predictions and who correctly called the rebound in China in 2009, said he was not as bullish as at the start of the year but nevertheless thinks a deterioration in the sovereign debt crisis will be avoided… more here

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Man Group Won’t Make Significant Acquisitions After GLG, CEO Clarke Says - Bloomberg

“It is effectively job done for our liquid trading strategies,” Clarke, 49, said today at the GAIM International hedge-fund conference in Monaco. “It’s possible we could infill with smaller mergers in Asia-Pacific.”…. more here


Post Under: Economic Outlook, General

A volatile year so far….

June 11, 2020

An article by Beverly Chandler.

Beverly Chandler will be covering GAIM International 2010, 14 - 17 June in Monaco

This year so far has brought a huge variety of drama for the world, not just for the hedge fund industry.  But our focus here is on our industry and recently it has had to deal with debt, volcanic ash, government change, regulatory and tax challenges and unprecedented wild weather.

Despite everything thrown at it, hedge funds appear to be not just surviving but actually getting back to business and thriving.  Recent research showed in-flows to global hedge funds in February at US$ 16.6 bn and March saw US$ 7.6 bn.  Assets in the industry are now at the highest level for 16 months at US$ 1.64 trillion.

Just as that volcanic ash is beginning to settle, so has the dust of the credit crisis begun to settle as people get back to work, albeit with a new awareness of how scarily close to wrecking it all the economic world came.  And with that realisation has come a raft of regulatory and supervisory proposals, designed to stop a banking and financial crisis on that scale happening again.

The European authorities are just about to announce the outcome of a lengthy process which started with what many felt was a knee-jerk reaction to the financial crisis.  The justification of new legislation aimed at curbing the activities of hedge funds and private equity funds was to mitigate systemic risk but as the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) repeatedly claims, there is little evidence that hedge funds caused the crisis.

While proposals were Europe-wide, the greatest concentration of European hedge fund activity is clearly in England and so it was the British hedge fund community that felt increasingly targeted by an almost vindictive regulatory campaign.

The next wave of attack came in proposed tax changes, coming at the hedge fund industry from all sides, the IMF, the EU and within the UK, from the pre-election success Conservatives. Concerned that banks might re-invent themselves as hedge funds in order to avoid paying proposed new taxes on their profits above a certain level, the IMF proposals included hedge funds and alternative funds in new levies that could add an additional 20 per cent tax on the pre-tax profits of certain banks and other financial businesses.

And who would be most affected by any of these changes?  The investors, who according to a new report in the US, are quite likely to be investors in public pension funds.  The report finds that public pension funds by dollar value, are the largest of the institutional allocators of capital to hedge funds.

Attracted to hedge funds by their uncorrelated returns, institutional investors did take fright at the lack of liquidity in hedge fund and fund of funds during the financial crisis.  And that need for liquidity has certainly been a driver for another trend we have seen over this year so far, the growth of so-called hedge fund-lite products in Europe, which show that UCITS funds (European ‘passported’ funds) have taken in US$ 200 bn since they were first allowed to include hedge funds.

Critics of the hedge fund industry - and there are a few, although not many may be reading this -  just have to remember that over 2008 the S&P 500 recorded a 37 per cent fall while hedge funds, on average achieved losses of 19 per cent.  Hedge funds experienced loss but less of a loss than traditional long only investments and while that still happens, they will always prove popular with investors.

About Beverly Chandler

Beverly Chandler has been a specialist hedge fund writer for a number of years, writing for most of the trade press, a number of national newspapers and publishing a couple of books on the subject.  She will be covering the GAIM International 2010 conference, producing a daily digest of the key outtakes from the event, and interviewing speakers & delegates about prevailing industry trends, their views of the future and why GAIM International is the “must attend” conference in the annual calendar.

Winning Business Models

May 17, 2020

An article by Byron R. Wien, Blackstone Advisory Services

Byron Wien, will be speaking at GAIM International 14-17 June 2020 in Monaco

Over the past year, two important shifts have become clear.  The first is that economic power is definitively shifting from Europe and the United States to Asia and the developing world.  Political power may eventually shift as well.  The developing world is gaining about a percentage point a year in share of world gross national product (GDP).  The second is that the financial markets can suddenly become volatile and dangerous places as we have seen with the recent Greek crisis.  Perhaps a third point is that derivatives and high speed trading can create temporary dislocations.  Computer technology was supposed to add transparency and stability to the markets, but, as we saw in early May, these tools can create turbulence as well. Read more »

Post Under: Economic Outlook


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